Deep generative models predict SARS-CoV-2 Spike infectivity and foreshadow neutralizing antibody escape (preprint)

Recurrent waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection, driven by the periodic emergence of new viral variants, highlight the need for vaccines and therapeutics that remain effective against future strains. Yet, our ability to proactively evaluate such therapeutics is limited to assessing their effectiveness against previous or circulating variants, which may differ significantly in their antibody escape from future viral evolution. To address this challenge, we developed deep learning methods to predict the effect of mutations on fitness and escape from neutralizing antibodies and used this information to engineer a set of 68 unique SARS-CoV-2 Spike proteins. The designed constructs, which incorporated novel combinations of up to 46 mutations relative to the ancestral strain, were infectious and evaded neutralization by nine well-characterized panels of human polyclonal anti-SARS-CoV-2 immune sera. Designed constructs on previous SARS-CoV-2 strains anticipated the antibody neutralization escape of variants seen subsequently during the COVID-19 pandemic. We demonstrate that designed Spike constructs using data available at the time of the implementation of the 2022 bivalent mRNA booster vaccine foretold the level of neutralizing antibody escape observed in the most recently emerging variants. Our approach provides extensive datasets of antigenically diverse escape variants to evaluate the protective ability of vaccines and therapeutics to inhibit future variants. This approach is generalizable to other viral pathogen

Inferring selection effects in SARS-CoV-2 with Bayesian Viral Allele Selection (preprint)

The global effort to sequence millions of SARS CoV-2 genomes has provided an unprecedented view of viral evolution. Characterizing how selection acts on SARS-CoV-2 is critical to developing effective, long-lasting vaccines and other treatments, but the scale and complexity of genomic surveillance data make rigorous analysis distinctly challenging. To meet this challenge, we develop Bayesian Viral Allele Selection (BVAS), a principled and scalable probabilistic method for inferring the genetic determinants of differential viral fitness and the relative growth rates of viral lineages, including newly emergent lineages. After demonstrating the accuracy and efficacy of our method through simulation, we apply BVAS to 6.9 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes. We identify numerous mutations that increase fitness, including previously identified mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 Spike and Nucleocapsid proteins, as well as mutations in non-structural proteins whose contribution to fitness is less well characterized. In addition, we extend our baseline model to identify mutations whose fitness exhibits strong dependence on vaccination status. Our method, which couples Bayesian variable selection with a diffusion approximation in allele frequency space, lays a foundation for identifying fitness-associated mutations under the assumption that most alleles are neutral.

Vaccine Breakthrough Infection with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta or Omicron (BA.1) Variant Leads to Distinct Profiles of Neutralizing Antibody Responses (preprint)

There is increasing evidence that the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among vaccinated individuals is variant-specific, suggesting that protective immunity against SARS-CoV-2 may differ by variant. We enrolled vaccinated (n = 39) and unvaccinated (n = 11) individuals with acute, symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Delta or Omicron infection and performed SARS-CoV-2 viral load quantification, whole-genome sequencing, and variant-specific antibody characterization at the time of acute illness and convalescence. Viral load at the time of infection was inversely correlated with antibody binding and neutralizing antibody responses. Increases in antibody titers and neutralizing activity occurred at convalescence in a variant-specific manner. Across all variants tested, convalescent neutralization titers in unvaccinated individuals were markedly lower than in vaccinated individuals. For individuals infected with the Delta variant, neutralizing antibody responses were weakest against BA.2, whereas infection with Omicron BA.1 variant generated a broader response against all tested variants, including BA.2.

Performance of three rapid antigen tests against the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (preprint)

Rapid antigen detection tests (RADTs) for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are now in widespread use in the United States. RADTs play an important role in maintaining an open society but require periodic reassessment to ensure test performance remains intact as the virus evolves. The nucleocapsid (N) protein is the target for the majority of RADTs and the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant has several N protein mutations that are previously uncharacterized. We sought to assess the impact of these mutations by testing 30 Omicron variant samples across a wide range of viral loads on three widely used RADTs: the iHealth COVID-19 Antigen Rapid Test, the ACON Laboratories FlowFlex COVID-19 Antigen Home Test, and the Abbott BinaxNOW COVID-19 Antigen Card, using 30 Delta variant samples as a comparator. We found no change in the analytic sensitivity of all three RADTs for detection of Omicron versus Delta, but noted differences in performance between assays. No RADT was able to detect samples with a cycle threshold (Ct) value of ≥27.5 for the envelope gene target on the Roche cobas RT-PCR assay. Epidemiologic studies are necessary to correlate these findings with their real-world performance.

Preferential expansion upon boosting of cross-reactive “pre-existing” switched memory B cells that recognize the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant Spike protein (preprint)

In previously unvaccinated and uninfected individuals, non-RBD SARS-CoV-2 spike-specific B cells were prominent in two distinct, durable, resting, cross-reactive, “pre-existing” switched memory B cell compartments. While pre-existing RBD-specific B cells were extremely rare in uninfected and unvaccinated individuals, these two pre-existing switched memory B cell compartments were molded by vaccination and infection to become the primary source of RBD-specific B cells that are triggered by vaccine boosting. The frequency of wild-type RBD-binding memory B cells that cross-react with the Omicron variant RBD did not alter with boosting. In contrast, after a boost, B cells recognizing the full-length Omicron variant spike protein expanded, with pre-existing resting memory B cells differentiating almost quantitatively into effector B cell populations. B cells derived from “ancient” pre-existing memory cells and that recognize the full-length wild-type spike with the highest avidity after boosting are the B cells that also bind the Omicron variant spike protein. Abstract Figure

Detection of the omicron variant virus with the Abbott BinaxNow SARS-CoV-2 Rapid Antigen Assay (preprint)

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends rapid testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection as a key element of epidemic control. The Abbott BinaxNow is in widespread use in the United States for self-testing and as part of public health screening campaigns, but has not been evaluated for use with the omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2. We recruited individuals testing positive for COVID-19 PCR at an academic medical center. Anterior nasal swabs were stored in viral transport media and evaluated by viral load quantification and whole genome sequencing. We created serial dilutions from 2.5x103- 2.5x105 viral copies/specimen for two delta and omicron specimens, respectively, and tested each with the BinaxNow assay per manufacturer instructions. Results were interpreted by three readers, blinded to the specimen variant and concentration. All omicron and delta specimens with concentrations of 100,000 copies/swab or greater were positive by the BinaxNow Assay, a concentration similar to previously reported limits of detection for this assay. Assay sensitivity diminished below that. This study demonstrates that Omicron variant SARS-CoV-2 infections are detected by the BinaxNow rapid antigen assay. Additional laboratory and clinical validation assessments are needed to better determine their limits of detection and performance in real-world settings.

Multiplexed CRISPR-based microfluidic platform for clinical testing of respiratory viruses and SARS-CoV-2 variants (preprint)

The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated a clear need for high-throughput, multiplexed, and sensitive assays for detecting SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses as well as their emerging variants. Here, we present microfluidic CARMEN (mCARMEN), a cost-effective virus and variant detection platform that combines CRISPR-based diagnostics and microfluidics with a streamlined workflow for clinical use. We developed the mCARMEN respiratory virus panel (RVP) and demonstrated its diagnostic-grade performance on 533 patient specimens in an academic setting and then 166 specimens in a clinical setting. We further developed a panel to distinguish 6 SARS-CoV-2 variant lineages, including Delta and Omicron, and evaluated it on 106 patient specimens, with near-perfect concordance to sequencing-based variant classification. Lastly, we implemented a combined Cas13 and Cas12 approach that enables quantitative measurement of viral copies in samples. mCARMEN enables high-throughput surveillance of multiple viruses and variants simultaneously.

Duration of viral shedding and culture positivity with post-vaccination breakthrough delta variant infections (preprint)

Isolation guidelines for SARS-CoV-2 are largely derived from data collected prior to emergence of the delta variant. We followed a cohort of ambulatory patients with post-vaccination breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections with longitudinal collection of nasal swabs for SARS-CoV-2 viral load quantification, whole genome sequencing, and viral culture. All delta variant infections (8/8, 100%) in our cohort were symptomatic, compared with 64% (9/14) of non-delta variant infections. Delta variant breakthrough infections were characterized by higher initial viral load, longer duration of virologic shedding by PCR (median 13.5 vs 4 days, hazard ratio [HR] 0.45, 95%CI 0.17-1.17), greater likelihood of replication-competent virus at early stages of infection (6/8 [75%] vs 3/14 [23%], P =0.03), and longer duration of culturable virus (median 7 vs 3 days, HR 0.38, 95%CI 0.14-1.02) compared to non-delta variants. Nonetheless, no individuals with delta variant infections had replication-competent virus by day 10 after symptom onset or 24 hours after resolution of symptoms. These data support current US Center for Disease Control isolation guidelines and reinforce the importance of prompt testing and isolation among symptomatic individuals with delta variant breakthrough infections. Additional data are needed to evaluate these relationships among asymptomatic and more severe delta variant breakthrough infections.

Analysis of 6.4 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes identifies mutations associated with fitness (preprint)

Repeated emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants with increased fitness necessitates rapid detection and characterization of new lineages. To address this need, we developed PyR 0 , a hierarchical Bayesian multinomial logistic regression model that infers relative prevalence of all viral lineages across geographic regions, detects lineages increasing in prevalence, and identifies mutations relevant to fitness. Applying PyR 0 to all publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we identify numerous substitutions that increase fitness, including previously identified spike mutations and many non-spike mutations within the nucleocapsid and nonstructural proteins. PyR 0 forecasts growth of new lineages from their mutational profile, identifies viral lineages of concern as they emerge, and prioritizes mutations of biological and public health concern for functional characterization. One Sentence summary A Bayesian hierarchical model of all SARS-CoV-2 viral genomes predicts lineage fitness and identifies associated mutations.

Development of a qualitative real-time RT-PCR assay for the detection of SARS-CoV-2: A guide and case study in setting up an emergency-use, laboratory-developed molecular assay (preprint)

Developing and deploying new diagnostic tests is difficult, but the need to do so in response to a rapidly emerging pandemic such as COVID-19 is crucially important for an effective response. In the early stages of a pandemic, laboratories play a key role in helping health care providers and public health authorities detect active infection, a task most commonly achieved using nucleic acid-based assays. While the landscape of diagnostics is rapidly evolving, polymerase chain reaction (PCR) remains the gold-standard of nucleic acid-based diagnostic assays, in part due to its reliability, flexibility, and wide deployment. To address a critical local shortage of testing capacity persisting during the COVID-19 outbreak, our hospital set up a molecular based laboratory developed test (LDT) to accurately and safely diagnose SARS-CoV-2. We describe here the process of developing an emergency-use LDT, in the hope that our experience will be useful to other laboratories in future outbreaks and will help to lower barriers to fast and accurate diagnostic testing in crisis conditions.

Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in the Boston area highlights the role of recurrent importation and superspreading events (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2 has caused a severe, ongoing outbreak of COVID-19 in Massachusetts with 111,070 confirmed cases and 8,433 deaths as of August 1, 2020. To investigate the introduction, spread, and epidemiology of COVID-19 in the Boston area, we sequenced and analyzed 772 complete SARS-CoV-2 genomes from the region, including nearly all confirmed cases within the first week of the epidemic and hundreds of cases from major outbreaks at a conference, a nursing facility, and among homeless shelter guests and staff. The data reveal over 80 introductions into the Boston area, predominantly from elsewhere in the United States and Europe. We studied two superspreading events covered by the data, events that led to very different outcomes because of the timing and populations involved. One produced rapid spread in a vulnerable population but little onward transmission, while the other was a major contributor to sustained community transmission, including outbreaks in homeless populations, and was exported to several other domestic and international sites. The same two events differed significantly in the number of new mutations seen, raising the possibility that SARS-CoV-2 superspreading might encompass disparate transmission dynamics. Our results highlight the failure of measures to prevent importation into MA early in the outbreak, underscore the role of superspreading in amplifying an outbreak in a major urban area, and lay a foundation for contact tracing informed by genetic data.

Cerebral Microvascular Injury in Severe COVID-19 (preprint)

IMPORTANCE: Microvascular lesions are common in patients with severe COVID-19. Radiologic-pathologic correlation in one case suggests a combination of microvascular hemorrhagic and ischemic lesions that may reflect an underlying hypoxic mechanism of injury, which requires validation in larger studies. OBJECTIVE: To determine the incidence, distribution, and clinical and histopathologic correlates of microvascular lesions in patients with severe COVID-19. DESIGN: Observational, retrospective cohort study: March to May 2020. SETTING: Single academic medical center. PARTICIPANTS: Consecutive patients (16) admitted to the intensive care unit with severe COVID-19, undergoing brain MRI for evaluation of coma or focal neurologic deficits. EXPOSURES: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES: Hypointense microvascular lesions identified by a prototype ultrafast high-resolution susceptibility-weighted imaging (SWI) MRI sequence, counted by two neuroradiologists and categorized by neuroanatomic location. Clinical and laboratory data (most recent measurements before brain MRI). Brain autopsy and cerebrospinal fluid PCR for SARS-CoV 2 in one patient who died from severe COVID-19. RESULTS: Eleven of 16 patients (69%) had punctate and linear SWI lesions in the subcortical and deep white matter, and eight patients (50%) had >10 SWI lesions. In 4/16 patients (25%), lesions involved the corpus callosum. Brain autopsy in one patient revealed that SWI lesions corresponded to widespread microvascular injury, characterized by perivascular and parenchymal petechial hemorrhages and microscopic ischemic lesions. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: SWI lesions are common in patients with neurological manifestations of severe COVID-19 (coma and focal neurologic deficits). The distribution of lesions is similar to that seen in patients with hypoxic respiratory failure, sepsis, and disseminated intravascular coagulation. Collectively, these radiologic and histopathologic findings suggest that patients with severe COVID-19 are at risk for multifocal microvascular hemorrhagic and ischemic lesions in the subcortical and deep white matter.